Foodservice inflation dips 0.2% in February but geopolitical risks persist

It is due to lower prices in categories such as milk, cheese, and eggs.

Food and drink prices in the foodservice sector edged down by 0.2% month-on-month in February, according to the latest Foodservice Price Index from NIQ and Prestige Purchasing.

The dip follows little change in January, after a period of rising prices late in 2025.

The February decline was mainly linked to lower prices in categories such as milk, cheese and eggs, where improved milk supply in Europe and weaker demand for cheese pushed prices down.

Oils and fats also continued to ease, whilst coffee, tea, and cocoa prices fell as earlier spikes in cocoa costs began to unwind amid improved supply expectations.

Other areas of the index, including mineral water, soft drinks, juices, meats, and poultry, showed little movement.

Beverage prices were kept in check by stable packaging costs and lower global sugar prices, whilst in meat, the tighter UK beef supply was offset by weaker pork prices internationally.

Despite the recent dip, wider geopolitical developments point to renewed cost pressures.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up crude oil prices, raising the risk of higher costs across manufacturing, packaging and distribution, which could reverse the recent decline.

Upward pressure is also building in other categories.

Bread and cereal prices rose as wheat markets reacted to frost damage and winterkill risks in parts of Europe and the US.

Vegetable prices increased due to supply gaps between growing seasons in regions such as Spain and Morocco, whilst fish prices climbed as strict Barents Sea cod quotas kept whitefish costs elevated.