Fast-food brands lose growth momentum
London footfall also weakened for the first time since the pandemic.
Fast-food expansion has slowed sharply in 2025, with store openings rising just 2% in the first half of the year as most segments stall and pizza slips into decline, according to Meaningful Vision.
This slowdown affects most fast-food segments, from bakeries and chicken shops to coffee chains and ethnic outlets.
The one exception is burgers, which maintained a healthy 2.6% growth rate. Despite many new players announcing growth plans, pizza slipped into negative territory with a 0.7% decline as operators face a struggle to balance rising costs with intense price competition.
Meaningful Vision’s report also revealed that for the first time since the post-Covid recovery, London, long the bellwether of hospitality traffic, has shown signs of weakness.
Footfall in the capital slowed, even as Northern Ireland, the South, Wales, and Scotland posted gains.
Across the UK as a whole, the picture is mixed: overall traffic is slightly stronger than in the same period last year, helped by fast-food’s modest 0.8% increase. Q2 in particular delivered a welcome lift thanks to robust growth in April and May, though June brought the weakest year-on-year figures since early 2025.
Still, growth in guest numbers has not kept pace with new openings. Even in fast-food, like-for-like traffic fell by 1.3%, as expansion increasingly cannibalises existing trade, which is a familiar pattern.
“In the early stages, new stores appear in high-demand central locations, but over time, expansion spreads into smaller areas with less footfall, reducing per-store averages,” Maria Vanifatova, CEO of Meaningful Vision, said.
In 2025, if there is one strategy in particular that operators appear to be focusing on, it’s promotions. Restaurant promotions rose 23% in the first half of the year, nearly matching the 25% growth seen in 2024. This means in just two years, promotional activity has grown by almost 50%.
Delivery platforms, however, are driving the most dramatic change. Promotional offers on these apps grew 93% in H1 2025 alone, more than doubling in just two years.
Vanifatova said this reflects a perfect storm of economic pressure and platform strategy. “With consumers more price-sensitive than ever, and delivery apps locked in fierce competition, promotions have become the go-to lever for driving volume.”
Special pricing now makes up 59% of restaurant app promotions, while loyalty-linked offers deliver deeper discounts—31% versus 9% on delivery platforms.
Shifting dayparts
Changing work patterns are also reshaping when people eat out. Breakfast, which surged in 2023 and 2024 as commuters returned to offices, is now slowing. Instead, afternoon traffic between 3PM and 6PM has become the fastest-growing slot, reversing its decline from last year. Dinner trade has improved too, whilst late evening visits remain in negative territory but are showing signs of stabilisation.
Much of the afternoon uplift is being driven by bakeries and coffee shops, which account for nearly 80% of the growth. This is linked to hybrid working.
“As people’s schedules become more flexible, we’re seeing eating habits move outside of traditional meal times. The emphasis is less on breakfast and lunch in city centres, and more on snacking or dining in the late afternoon,” Vanifatova said.
